"Do you shop at TK Maxx?"
That's the interview question Rory Sutherland says you should be asking every candidate. His RecFest keynote was packed full of contrarian thinking that can change the way TA influences organisations.
The 20% Rule in Nature and Recruitment
Rory shared a splendid bee analogy:
20% of bees completely ignore the waggle dance that tells them exactly where to find pollen. They just "piss off at random" instead.
This seems wasteful until you realise that without these random bees, the hive gets trapped and starves. The compliant bees can't adapt to change, can't grow beyond existing resources, and most importantly – they can't get lucky.
The random bees aren't just gathering (making sure they don't starve). They're hunting (trying to get lucky).
This discovery is crucial to their survival. And is packed full of lessons for organisations wanting to adapt and thrive.
The Asda vs. TK Maxx Framework
Rory then shared a retail analogy that perfectly captures two fundamentally different approaches:
Asda shopping is thin-tailed: You know what you want, get it efficiently, and celebrate the 3.7% saving. Finance people love this – it's predictable, measurable, safe.
TK Maxx shopping is fat-tailed: You go in like a magpie with no specific agenda. You're treasure hunting, not shopping.
Rory's friends who say "I went to TK Maxx but couldn't find what I wanted" fundamentally don't understand fat-tailed behaviour. You don't go to TK Maxx with a shopping list.
Explore vs. Exploit in Recruitment
This maps directly to how we hire:
EXPLOIT (Your 80% - The Asda Approach):
Thin-tailed, predictable outcomes
Simple cost-benefit analysis
One role, one perfect candidate
Efficiency and minimal "waste"
EXPLORE (Your 20% - The TK Maxx Approach):
Fat-tailed outcomes where 5% of successes pay for all the rest
High uncertainty, breakthrough potential
Hiring for the person, finding the role later
Most experiments fail, but the wins are massive
Exploit is simple energy accounting. Explore is like the film industry – a few epic results pay for everything else.
The AI Amplification Reality
How you think about recruitment determines how you'll use AI.
Fat-tailed thinking: You'll use AI to amplify brilliance and execute breakthrough ideas faster than ever.
Thin-tailed thinking: You'll just make mediocrity slightly more common and slightly better.
The TK Maxx Test in Practice
So if someone says they went to TK Maxx and couldn't find what they wanted, they're mission-direct Asda shoppers who don't understand explore behaviour.
But if they light up talking about finding Versace sunglasses for £37.25, or how they go in "like a magpie" never knowing what treasure they'll discover – these are your explorers.
The Perception Shift
Rory's final insight: It's much easier to change perception than it is to change reality.
We don't need to revolutionise recruitment. We need to change how we perceive it. Stop seeing explore behaviour as wasteful. Start seeing it as essential for survival.
Most of us have become so good at Asda shopping that we've forgotten how to treasure hunt. We've optimised for the 80% and forgotten about the 20% that prevents us from starving.
**Filmed at RecFest 2025. Full credit to Rory Sutherland for the original keynote.**
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